Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev last week called for increased defense cooperation among the Central Asian countries known collectively as the C5 — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — potentially leading to a regional security architecture. This is a part of new efforts to reverse the old trend of the region having stronger relationships with external countries, such as Russia, than those within the region.
The new vision also reflects an anxiety Tokayev and other Central Asian leaders have expressed over polarization in international relations and a desire to remain neutral and positive while working with all sides, especially similarly independent midsize players such as the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, with which the C5 established strategic cooperation last year.
In an op-ed published last week, Tokayev pointed out the complex and persistent military-political challenges surrounding Central Asia and called for closer defense collaboration among the region’s states. He stressed: “The creation of a regional security architecture is becoming especially urgent, including through the development of a catalog of security risks for Central Asia and measures to prevent them.” He added: “As a responsible participant in the world community, Kazakhstan advocates strict adherence to the principles of international law, respect for sovereignty and the inviolability of borders.”
Tokayev outlined several priorities, including the formation of an indivisible regional security space, “comprehensive” approaches to traditional and emerging threats and the development of effective response and prevention strategies, while actively engaging with the UN and other international and regional organizations to enhance regional security.
Tokayev’s proposal came about a month after the Shanghai Cooperation Organization held its summit in Astana, where Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin pressed the case for closer security, political and economic cooperation between the countries of the vast Eurasian region as a counterweight to Western alliances.
“SCO members should consolidate unity and jointly oppose external interference in the face of the real challenges of interference and division,” the Chinese leader said, while warning against a “Cold War mentality.”
President Putin reiterated Russia’s call for a “new architecture of cooperation, indivisible security and development in Eurasia, designed to replace the outdated Eurocentric and Euro-Atlantic models, which gave unilateral advantages only to certain states.” He said that the proposed new Eurasian security pact should be open to all countries across the region, including current NATO members. But the aim, he said, should be to gradually remove all external military presences from Eurasia.
In February, Putin launched the proposed Eurasian security system, stressing the need to form a “new contour of equal and indivisible security in Eurasia.” He said that Russia was ready for a substantive conversation on this topic with interested parties and associations. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Astana, he said: “The multipolar world has become reality. More and more countries support a fair world order and are ready to vigorously defend their legal rights and traditional values.”
That Tokayev presented his new vision just a month later reflects a desire to chart an independent path toward security, notwithstanding what was said at the Astana summit. He is clearly concerned about instability and security threats in the region, which he believes require a coordinated response that is independent of superpower rivalry.
Central Asian countries gained political independence in 1991 after about 150 years of Russian and then Soviet rule. Since gaining independence, they have sought to preserve their security and independence while promoting trade and investment. As landlocked countries, they lie thousands of miles away from any body of water other than the isolated Caspian Sea. As such, they need to build working relationships with their neighbors to secure supply routes and access to the sea.
Russia remained the Central Asia countries’ main trade partner even after independence. They all joined the Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States, an economic integration organization, and some of them joined the Eurasian Economic Union. However, the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions have made it difficult for Russia to maintain its economic dominance in this region. In 2023, China became Central Asia’s top trade partner, pushing Russia into second.
The US has increased its engagement with the Central Asia countries ever since their independence, but especially since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. Last year, the US and the Central Asian states held their first ever summit. Kazakhstan is America’s top economic partner in the region, with bilateral trade of $4 billion in 2023. This is small compared to its trade with China and Russia, but it is growing. US direct investments in Kazakhstan reached $5 billion in 2022, with a total figure since independence of more than $62 billion. Besides its geostrategic location, Central Asia has abundant resources, including oil, gas, uranium and rare earth elements that are essential for high-tech industries and electric cars.
Competition between superpowers has seen them living cheek by jowl in these countries to try to woo them to one pole or the other, but the new security architecture proposed by Kazakhstan shows that Central Asia would like to stay neutral, friends of all and enemy of none. For example, they have not taken sides in the Ukraine war, with Tokayev publicly disagreeing with Putin during the 2022 St. Petersburg Economic Forum.
The new security architecture proposed by Kazakhstan shows that Central Asia would like to stay neutral.
Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg
The main impetus toward closer cooperation in Central Asia has come from Uzbekistan, the region’s most populous country, especially since Shavkat Mirziyoyev came to power in 2016 and saw fresh opportunities for trade and political unity. In an article published last week, former Uzbek foreign minister and presidential adviser on foreign policy Abdulaziz Kamilov wrote that Uzbekistan “had assumed a special responsibility for the future of Central Asia” by “completely abandoning outdated approaches to establishing relations with neighbors,” meaning replacing animosities and suspicion with trust and cooperation. So, it is natural that Uzbekistan would support Kazakhstan’s proposal.
Azerbaijan, although not part of Central Asia, has also supported the proposal, emphasizing its collective defense aspects.
The only negative commentary on the proposal has come from outside Central Asia, dismissing it as a Western ploy.
As Central Asia and GCC ties grow, and as the two blocs prepare for their next summit in Samarkand next year, there will be plenty of exchanges on the idea of collective security. In March, the GCC released its first regional security vision, which also stressed collective defense and its central role in maintaining regional security, while avoiding polarization and confrontation and offering to support like-minded nations such as those in Central Asia.
